专家预测2021年将是购房之年

2020年05月27日

来源:柴老师国际教育服务

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“ COVID-19无疑为购房者创造了特殊的环境,”佛罗里达州棕榈滩镇的房地产开发商的市场总监Susan Moguel说, “由于防疫关闭了许多行业,大流行造成的经济不确定性迫使许多人搁置了购房计划。”

另一方面,抵押贷款利率处于最低点。此外,许多房屋建筑商和开发商正在通过特殊的交易来引诱买家,例如折扣价,免除交易成本,设备升级,抵押变更等等。 Susan说:“想买新房的那些人在这个时候有特殊的机会。”

抵押贷款利率创历史新低

尽管美联储的目标利率对抵押贷款利率没有直接影响,但两者之间存在关联,抵押贷款利率随美联储的目标利率相应下降。 4月份抵押贷款利率降至历史最低水平,而30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率目前徘徊在3.4%左右。

最好的购房时机尚未到来

TheClose.com网站首席房地产分析师兼执行编辑埃米尔·莱普拉特尼尔(Emile L’Eplattenier)认为,房地产价值被认为是市场冲击的滞后指标。 “我们可以把它想像成地震后的海啸:即使股市遭受了巨大破坏,几十个行业都在崩溃,我们至少几个月都不会开始看到这种影响对房地产价格的影响。”

L’Eplattenier说,一方面,房主在过去几年中因库存积压和超速高档化而被宠坏了。因此,那些不幸在大流行期间不得不出售股票的人还将顽固地坚持衰退前的价格几个月。

此外,政府已采取多种措施刺激经济并保护无力支付账单的消费者。但这不会永远持续下去。 “在接下来的几个月中,政府最终将制止印钞。在许多市场中,驱逐和丧失抵押品赎回权的禁令将停止。我们将开始看到成千上万的企业倒闭。这是房地产市场真正开始起伏的时候。”

取消抵押品赎回权的过程需要很长时间,因此很快进入抵押品赎回权的房屋至少要几个月后才会出现在拍卖会上。但是一旦这样做,房价预计会迅速下跌。抵押品赎回权就像花园里的杂草,清除抵押品赎回权将会迅速降低房价过高的房屋的价值。

您是否应该在大流行期间购买房屋?

历史性低利率使目前购房成为一个有吸引力的选择,但是在评估大流行将如何影响市场和消费者的财务生活时,仍然存在许多未知数和挑战。

截至四月,已有超过三千万美国人申请失业。一些州已经开始缓慢地重新开放业务,但是目前尚不清楚关闭将对未来几个月的就业产生什么样的连锁反应。

在工作稳定性不确定时买房有风险。明年可能会有千载难逢的购买机会,但这并不意味着如果您在没有做好准备的情况下就去购买。

Nest Seekers International的持牌房地产经纪人Peggy Zabakolas说:“没人能预测市场,我坚信正确的购买时机是在您做好财务准备之后。”

对于收入稳定且手头上有大量现金的潜在购房者来说,好消息是,如果继续大规模裁员,我们可能会在接下来的几个月内看到许多存货以折扣价出售,从而成为买方市场。

“COVID-19 has definitely created special circumstances for homebuyers,” said Susan Moguel, marketing director at Arden, a real estate developer in Palm Beach County, Florida. “With numerous industries shuttered due to quarantine, the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic forced many people to put their homebuying plans on hold.”

On the other hand, mortgage rates are at rock bottom. Plus, many homebuilders and developers are enticing buyers with special deals, such as discounted prices, waived closing costs, appliance upgrades, mortgage modifications and more, Moguel said. “Those in the market for a new home have a unique opportunity to take advantage of these opportunities during this time,” she said.

Mortgage Rates Are At All-Time Lows

Though the Fed’s target rate doesn’t have a direct effect on mortgage interest rates, there is a connection between the two, and mortgage rates dropped accordingly. Mortgage rates fell to all-time lows in April, and the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now hovers around 3.4%.

The Biggest Homebuying Opportunities Are Yet To Come

Real estate values are considered a lagging indicator of market shocks, according to Emile L’Eplattenier, chief real estate analyst and managing editor for TheClose.com. “Think of it like a tsunami that follows an earthquake: Even with massive damage to the stock market and dozens of industries all but collapsing, we won’t start to see the effects play out on real estate pricing for a few months at least,” he said.

For one, homeowners have been spoiled by tight inventory and hyperspeed gentrification over the past few years, L’Eplattenier said. So those who are in the unfortunate position of having to sell during the pandemic will stubbornly stick to pre-recession pricing for a few months.

Further, the government has take several measures to stimulate the economy and protect consumers who can’t afford their bills. But that won’t go on forever. “Over the next few months, the government will eventually put the brakes on printing money. Eviction and foreclosure moratoriums will cease in many markets. And we [will] start to see thousands of businesses go under. This is when the real estate market is going to really start to wobble and fall.”

The foreclosure process takes a long time, so homes that soon enter foreclosure won’t show up at auction for at least another few months. But once they do, housing prices should fall fast. “Foreclosures are like weeds in a garden; they pull down the value of aggressively priced homes, and quickly,” L’Eplattenier said.

Should You Buy A House During A Pandemic?

Rock-bottom rates make homebuying an attractive option, but there are still many unknowns and challenges when it comes to assessing how the pandemic will affect the market and consumers’ financial lives.

As of April, more than 30 million Americans had filed for unemployment. Some states have begun to reopen businesses slowly, but there’s no telling what kind of ripple effect the shutdown will have on employment for months to come.

Buying a home when your job stability is uncertain is a risky prospect. The next year might present once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to buy, but that doesn’t mean you should go for it if you aren’t prepared.

“No one can ever predict the market, and I am a strong believer that the right time to buy is when you are financially ready to,” said Peggy Zabakolas, a licensed real estate broker with Nest Seekers International.

The good news for prospective homebuyers with stable income and plenty of cash on hand is that if massive layoffs continue, we may see a lot of inventory coming up in the next few months at discounted prices, making it a buyer’s market.

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