中国概述对工商业地产和首次购房者的支持

2020年05月29日

来源:柴老师国际教育服务

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中国住房部财产政策专家委员会副主任顾云昌和广东省房地产政策研究所首席研究员李玉佳指出,政策性住房,受城市发展计划影响的低收入群体和居民的补贴以及商业和工业财产将成为关注重点。

在所有行业中,中国的房地产业复苏速度最快。例如,在四月份,70个主要城市的新房价格上涨了0.4%。实际上,得益于债务融资的激增,房地产销售本月几乎恢复至2019年的水平。

但是,如果失业率上升,国内消费可能会面临问题。例如,全国的零售额下降了7.5%,高于预期。今年第一季度,中国的国民生产总值出现了历史性的6.8%的收缩。

“房地产市场绝对有助于推动需求,” 顾云昌表示, “我们需要提高销售量以确保稳定的投资,并稳定房价,尤其是在大城市中。”

他强调稳定,并说政策制定者从2008年金融危机实施刺激措施后的房地产繁荣中吸取了教训。刺激措施推高了房价,而家庭杠杆率升至创纪录水平。 “现在不是短期刺激的时候了,而是稳定市场的时候。”顾先生补充道。

李玉佳对此表示赞同,并表示短期内北京仍需要维持房地产市场的稳定。他说,房地产泡沫得到了很好的控制,尽管他预计在土地销售增加的情况下泡沫会加剧。

去年,房地产业贡献了中国国内生产总值的7%,其对建筑和机械等行业的影响使其成为经济的支柱之一。

顾云昌说,根据今年的战略发展计划,北京有望在今年强调商业和工业物业的发展,包括加强医疗保健,旅游业和第五代互联网服务和新型基础设施等新基础设施的建设,还有新和源汽车产业。

顾和李均表示,预计中央政府将抑制高杠杆购买行为,并进一步加强对流入房地产市场的投机资本的控制。目前还不会试图通过放松配额和价格限制限制来刺激需求,这在过去几年中已经抑制了投机活动。

北京限制了个人和家庭可以购买的房屋数量以及购房所需的最低首付。决策者还设定了房地产项目的最高价格,并且不允许房主在若干年后在二手市场上转售住房。

这些会议是为了保持住房是为了生存而不是投机的目标,并将重点放在房地产市场的健康发展上。李玉佳 表示:“只要货币政策保持现状,它们就会产生非常明显的解除效果。那就没有必要进一步刺激房地产市场了。”

Policy housing, or subsidised homes for low-income groups and residents affected by urban renewal plans, as well as commercial and industrial properties will be in focus, according to Gu Yunchang, the deputy director of the Property Policy Expert Committee of China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and Li Yujia, chief researcher at Guangdong Property Policy Research Institute, a policy advisory branch of the provincial housing regulator.

China’s property sector has recovered fastest among all industries. For instance, home purchases pushed up the prices of new homes in 70 major cities by 0.4 per cent in April. In fact, property sales recovered almost to 2019 levels for the month, aided by a surge in debt financing.

But domestic consumption could face problems if unemployment were to increase. Retail sales, for instance, fell 7.5 per cent across the country, higher than forecasts, alongside a historic 6.8 per cent contraction in China’s national output during the first quarter.

“The property market absolutely helps drive demand,” said Gu. “We need to improve sales to ensure stable investment, and also to stabilise housing prices, especially in large cities.”

He emphasised stability and said policymakers had learned their lesson from the property boom that followed the stimulus implemented during the 2008 financial crisis. The stimulus pushed housing prices sky-high, while the household leverage ratio rose to record levels. “Now is not the time for short-term stimulation, but to stabilise the market,” Gu added.

Li echoed this view, saying that in the short term, Beijing still needed to maintain stability of the property market. He said the property bubble was well under control, although he expected it to edge up amid increasing land sales.

The property sector contributed 7 per cent of China’s gross domestic product last year, and its influence on industries such as construction and machinery, for instance, makes it one of the pillars of the economy.

This year, however, Beijing is expected to stress the development of commercial and industrial properties, Gu said, in line with its recent strategic development plans, which include boosting health care, tourism and new infrastructure such as fifth-generation internet services and new-energy vehicles.

Both Gu and Li said the central government was expected to rein in highly-leveraged purchases and further tighten control on speculative capital flowing into the property market. It would also not seek to stimulate demand by loosening quota and price limit restrictions, which have helped curb speculation over the past several years.

Beijing limits the number of houses an individual and a family can buy and the minimum down payments required for home purchases. Policymakers also set the maximum prices of property projects and do not allow homeowners to resell housing units in the secondary market until after a certain number of years.

The meetings are expected to maintain the idea that houses are for living, not speculation, and focus on the healthy development of the property market. “As long as monetary policies maintain the current status, they will have a very obvious lifting effect. Then it’s unnecessary to further stimulate the property market,” Li said.

 

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